Prediction Markets Trader

Prediction Markets Trader Flexible - US Preferred DRW is a major Chicago-based proprietary trading firm founded in 1992 by Don Wilson, specializing in diversified, technology-driven market-making and quantitative trading across asset classes including fixed income, options, derivatives, commodities, energy, equities, FX, and cryptocurrency. DRW is building out a dedicated prediction markets desk focused on platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi. As a Prediction Markets Trader , you will develop, execute, and optimize high-conviction trading strategies in binary event contracts. You will manage a live portfolio, targeting consistent positive expectancy through market making, microstructure exploitation, cross-platform arbitrage, event-driven momentum, and statistical models. This role requires genuine, demonstrated passion for prediction markets, strong quantitative reasoning, and the ability to operate in thin, volatile, event-resolution-driven environments. Core Responsibilities • Monitor and trade active markets in real time across Polymarket (CLOB/Gamma/Subgraph APIs) and Kalshi (FIX/WebSocket/REST). • Execute strategies including: market making with dynamic skew, microstructure arbitrage (order-flow and book-imbalance sniping), cross-platform arb, news/event momentum (sub-second reaction), and statistical pairs/mean-reversion. • Develop and backtest models using historical tick data, Bayesian probability updates, NLP sentiment parsing, and ML for fair-value estimation. • Collaborate with engineering on low-latency infrastructure (API integrations, order engines, anomaly detection). Required Qualifications • Bachelor's or higher in Quantitative Finance, Statistics, Computer Science, Economics, Mathematics, or equivalent. • Strong programming skills: Python (pandas, NumPy, backtesting). • Solid foundation in probability, statistics, time-series analysis, and Bayesian methods. • Hands-on experience with prediction market platforms (Polymarket and/or Kalshi APIs) or closely related domains (options, binary events, sports/event betting). • Genuine, demonstrated interest in prediction markets — we expect you to be actively engaged with the space (personal trading, deep reading of protocols, following major resolutions, contributing to discussions, etc.). This is non-negotiable. Highly Valued (but not strictly required) • Prior profitable trading experience in prediction markets, options, or event-driven strategies (personal or professional). • Familiarity with blockchain/DeFi tools (ethers.js, Polygon RPC, USDC wallets). • Experience with low-latency systems, FIX protocol, or Web3 integrations. • Track record of building and backtesting quantitative models with real historical data. • Deep domain knowledge of high-impact events (politics, macroeconomics, climate, sports). Who We’re Looking For: We are especially interested in exceptionally sharp, self-motivated individuals — including strong campus hires and new graduates — who are obsessed with prediction markets and can demonstrate clear, substantive engagement with the space. If you’ve been actively trading Polymarket/Kalshi, analyzing resolutions, building personal models, or following the ecosystem closely, we want to talk to you. Applications reviewed on a rolling basis. Strong candidates will receive a technical screen, strategy discussion, and live coding/modeling exercise focused on real prediction market scenarios. Location: Flexible. US-based preferred. The annual base salary range for this position is $175,000 to $200,000 depending on the candidate’s experience, qualifications, and relevant skill set. The position is also eligible for an annual discretionary bonus. In addition, DRW offers a comprehensive suite of employee benefits including group medical, pharmacy, dental and vision insurance, 401k (with discretionary employer match), short and long-term disability, life and AD&D insurance, health savings accounts, and flexible spending accounts.